Future-proof your decision-making & test your predictive skills in this transformative, scientifically-proven program to help you lead and excel in a data-driven world.
Stand out by making consistently better decisions than the rest. Sharpen and test your predictive power to optimize your outcomes.
Before we ask ourselves "what should we do" we need to ask ourselves "what could happen?"
The best decision-making involves both a high-quality process as well as analytical ability to anticipate change.
Predictive analysis is an increasingly essential skill in a data-driven world.
But how do you cultivate true predictive skill?
Let's start by looking at what causes bad forecasts.
• Forgetting to conduct an analysis of historical data to locate a base line benchmark
• Only reviewing information that you believe will contain the “right answer”
• Developing a hypothesis or forecast about a future event but failing to update that forecast as new information comes in
• Using slippery words rather than numbers to express estimates about the likelihood of a future event
• Avoiding keeping track of your forecasts
If any of these mistakes sound familiar, or if you've never even tried forecasting, check out the video below:
Better predictive skill is not only possible, it can be learned!
We've spent the last decade leading research in the science of prediction.
Multiple studies have shown that--despite their own beliefs to the contrary--most people are terrible at making forecasts and predictions. Especially experts. They only improve when trained and put to the test
Achieve superior decision-making by transforming how you see the future.
Think in Forecasts: Become proficient in prediction by learning probabilistic estimation
Reduce Bias and Noise: Overcome decision-killers by identifying & mitigating mental traps
Go Beyond Google: Develop open source intelligence (OSINT) skill to stay ahead of critical information
Conduct Pre- & Post-Mortems: Learn a step-by-step process to iteratively improve decision accuracy
Team To Win: Be a better collaborator via a gamified competition with prizes for performance
Apply Predictive Reasoning: Learn from a veteran United Nations trainer a real world adaptation: negotiation
Built on a scientifically-proven system that has trained diplomats, intelligence analysts, and military & government policy specialists in the US and Europe since 2014, ARETE's unique program is now available online.
30 Fun & Engaging Videos Make the Science Understandable
Step-by-step video tutorials guide your instruction in core decision science and predictive reasoning concepts. You'll hone your strategic analytic skills with game-like exercises.
Learn & Practice Forecasting In A Contest With Fellow Bootcampers
Practice what you've learned in a forecasting tournament with fellow Bootcampers. Test your predictions, get scored on your accuracy, and win prizes for top performance!
3 Downloads:
Decision Tool, Tips Guide & Performance Report
You'll get a pre-programmed, reusable decision table worksheet; a 13-page Handy Forecasting Guide; and a 10-page Tournament Performance report.
2 Quizzes To Improve Your Calibration & Sensitivity to Bias and Noise
Track your progress with quizzes to set your baselines. Learn to identify cognitive biases and decision flaws to reduce them in your judgment.
BONUS: Optional Articles And Videos To Deepen Your Understanding
Go deeper into your understanding of how applying the science of decisions and predictions can be your best strategic self-improvement move.
Machine Learning and AI will dominate, but humans will still need to call the shots.
Our hybrid human-machine future demands superior human decision-making.
The most indispensable workers will be those who have adopted strategies uncovered by the last decade of research in decision science and forecasting.
ARETE's creator has led that research, winning multiple consecutive government-funded R&D programs testing human & human-machine systems & training.
Our systems have consistently shown the greatest accuracy improvements in human judgment and prediction.
A single training intervention can improve accuracy with zero prior experience by as much as 48%.
This course is designed to address the needs of a wide array of people:
Junior staffers can get noticed by establishing consistent forecasting accuracy
Managers & analysts strengthen their recognition of common biases that interfere with event outcomes
Resource directors maximize inclusion by better understanding how collective intelligence works
Leaders hone their sense for what's next by learning how to apply evidence-based techniques
You can access course materials any time during the year-long subscription period so you can learn on a schedule that best suits you.
Access to the month-long forecasting tournament is offered twice per year in Spring & Fall, for maximum scheduling flexibility.
This gold standard-tested training program is proven to boost forecasting accuracy with:
30 entertaining video tutorials you can watch anytime ($1600 value)
- Step-by-step instruction on how to use open source intelligence techniques to improve your information awareness
- Quizzes to help you understand your reasoning style and to measure learning effects
- Real-world examples and use cases including a special section on applying decision science and forecasting to negotiation
A 10-question month-long forecasting tournament using a gamified platform to engage active learning-through-practice. Participants will be scored and prizes awarded for accuracy ($2000 value)
3 Downloads you can reuse ($850 value)
- Pre-programmed Decision Table worksheet tool
- Handy Tips Guide to help you think like a Superforecaster
- Tournament Performance Report has metrics on participants' before-and-after performance in the forecasting tournament. Participants' accuracy is measured with a Brier score, an accepted accuracy rule.
Total Value: $4450
Why should I care about improving my predictive reasoning skills? I think I'm pretty good at forecasting!
The only way you can claim you are good at making forecasts is to actually test your skill. Nobel Prize-winning research has shown overconfidence is a key reason why people assume they are predictively accurate, but in reality often blunder in decision-making because the things they thought would happen, actually didn't. The good news is that research we and colleagues have done in anticipatory intelligence shows that getting better at prediction is a trainable skill. And the people who benefit most are the ones who start with the lowest skill level! Getting better at anticipating what comes next is at the core of making better decisions and future-proofing your perspective.
What if I'm not smart enough? Math & science are not my best subjects.
We have built this course for the average math-phobic person, not statisticians. We take complex subjects and use cartoons and humor to make the material approachable. We've tested the content modules on hundreds of human test subjects over several years.
When does the Bootcamp's tournament take place?
ARETE tournaments are held twice a year, in Spring and Fall. They last for a month, and the next one is scheduled to begin October 2021. You will receive an email with scheduled tournament dates so that you can choose whether you want to test yourself in the Spring or the Fall tournament.
What if I'm unhappy with the course?
We would never want you to be unhappy! Contact us in the first 30 days and we will give you a no-questions-asked full refund.
When does this course start?
Once the Bootcamp goes live on 14 July 2021, course materials will become available upon purchase.
When does the course end?
It's a completely self-paced online course—you decide when you start and when you finish.
How long do I have access to the course?
After enrolling, you have unlimited access to this course for the length of your annual subscription—across any (and all) devices you own.
Who teaches this course?
ARETE's creator, a top-ranked Superforecaster and co-founder of Pytho, teaches the course.
What are the software requirements for this course?
You will also need access to the Internet to download the course files, stream videos, and participate in the forecasting tournament.
How long is this course?
The ARETE Decision Bootcamp course materials comprise over 5 hours of video tutorials and a month of forecasting activity. The tutorials can be explored at your own pace throughout the length of your annual subscription.
How much does this course cost?
The cost of ARETE Decision Bootcamp is $588
Get To Know The Three Tiers Of The ARETE Brain Bootcamps
INTRODUCTORY LEVEL:
Brain Basics Bootcamp
Start your journey in learning how to anticipate change and master disruption with this introductory one-hour course:
- Decision science for beginners
- Test your ability to identify biases and recognize noise patterns that interfere with making choices
- Downloadable, reusable worksheets help you get decision optimizing techniques down to a simple routine. Optional reading materials also supplied
- Course can be completed in 60 minutes
- One-time payment of USD $49 (billed once, permanent access)
INTERMEDIATE LEVEL:
Decision Bootcamp
Advance and deepen your leadership skills with ARETE Decision Bootcamp, a comprehensive, self-timed training program:
- 30+ videos guide you through 6 weeks' worth of materials you can study & complete at your own speed. Materials include worksheets & guides
- Package includes access to a forecasting competition as part of this unique learning experience to test your skill. You will receive a Brier score. Prizes awarded for top accuracy
- Annual subscription of USD $49/month (billed annually)
PREMIUM LEVEL:
Prediction Bootcamp
The 6-week ARETE Prediction Bootcamp offers a world-class mentoring & coaching experience with live, weekly sessions:
- Includes all the features of the Decision Bootcamp PLUS:
- One-on-one coaching sessions with Superforecaster Regina Joseph & special guests
- Live weekly 90-minute interactive group sessions to reinforce learning & teaming
- Customized Performance Report & Analysis
- Annual subscription of USD $249/month (billed annually)
"In the Netherlands, over 100 employees of different government ministries, research institutes and companies were trained so far by Regina Joseph in strategic foresight. The course was very helpful in training our forecasting skills and our assessment of trends, events and risks. Regina is a skilled, passionate and enthusiastic teacher and a top superforecaster."
- Dr. Marcel G. Mennen, The Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Former Secretary of the Dutch Analyst Network on National Safety and Security
Hi, I'm Regina
I'm a cofounder of the company Pytho and the creator of ARETE. These programs represent over a decade's worth of my experience in government-funded research developing cognitive science-based techniques, as well as teaching their application to critical decision-making at the highest levels in both public and private sectors. I have a consistently winning track record as a top-ranked Superforecaster since 2012 in IARPA research programs. My training systems are used by governments in Europe & the US. And I have applied my foresight to entrepreneurship, creating several award-winning products that were the firsts of their kind--like the world's first digital magazine, Blender.
Add Mentoring by ARETE's Creator To Your Bootcamp Experience
Deepen your experience of the Decision Bootcamp by adding one-on-one custom coaching and mentoring with the creator of ARETE.
