Supercharge the precision of your planning & decisions. Work one-on-one with a Superforecaster in this comprehensive, proven program to help you anticipate change & optimize your potential
Become indispensable to any organization through superior forecasting.
Work with the world's best to unlock the secrets of better decisions.
Before we ask ourselves "what should we do" we need to ask ourselves "what could happen?"
As we face greater volatility--whether pandemics, climate or financial crises--we need to upgrade our foresight.
Predictive analysis is an increasingly essential skill in an uncertain world.
But how do you cultivate true predictive skill?
Let's start by looking at what causes bad forecasts.
• Refrain from registering your initial assumptions before and after a decision is made to track your assumptions' validity
• Adjust your perspective on a decision's outcome so that it aligns more closely with the dominant opinion of your team
• Stick only with data most closely tied to the situation you are trying to forecast without conducting a wider open source search
• Avoid deliberately probing forecasts before you make them to identify where your thinking could have gone wrong
• Default to decision evaluation in the form of a "pros and cons" list or a group consensus opinion
If any of these mistakes sound familiar, or if you've never forecasted before, check out this video below:
Better predictive skill is not only possible, it can be learned!
We've spent the last decade leading research in the science of prediction.
We've built proven training systems shown to be the most effective at improving accuracy, even for amateurs with zero forecasting skill.
Multiple studies have shown that--despite their own beliefs to the contrary--most people are terrible at making forecasts and predictions. Especially experts. They only improve when trained and put to the test.
And forecasting tournaments are one of the most reliable ways to reduce noise and bias in decision-making.
Achieve superior decision-making by transforming how you see the future.
Work & Forecast Alongside A Recognized Superforecaster: Get mentored by the certified best
Assess Your Metacognitive Style: Discover your reasoning approach to improve performance
Think in Probabilities: Become proficient in prediction by learning probabilistic estimation
Reduce Bias and Noise: Overcome decision-killers by identifying & mitigating mental traps
Go Beyond Google: Hone open source intelligence (OSINT) skill to stay ahead of information
Conduct Pre- & Post-Mortems: Learn step-by-step how to iteratively improve accuracy
Team To Win: Be a better collaborator via a gamified competition with prizes for performance
Apply Predictive Reasoning: A veteran United Nations trainer instructs on real world adaptation: negotiation
Built on a scientifically-proven system that has trained diplomats, intelligence analysts, and military & government policy specialists in the US and Europe since 2014, ARETE's unique program is now available online.
30 Fun & Engaging Videos Make the Science Understandable
Step-by-step video tutorials guide your instruction in core decision science and predictive reasoning concepts. You'll hone your strategic analytic skills with game-like exercises.
Learn & Practice Forecasting In A Contest With Bootcampers
Practice what you've learned in a forecasting tournament with fellow Bootcampers. Test your predictions, get scored on your accuracy, and win prizes for top performance!
Weekly Premium Group &
ARETE offers coaching in 6 live 90-minute group workshops and one private one-on-one mentoring session with ARETE's creator, a top-ranked Superforecaster. Notable guest stars also featured.
Decision Tool, Tips Guide & Performance Report
You'll get a pre-programmed, reusable decision table worksheet; a 13-page Handy Forecasting Guide; and a 17-page customized Performance Analytics report.
4 Quizzes To Improve Your Calibration & Sensitivity to Bias and Noise
Track your progress with quizzes to set your baselines. Learn to identify cognitive biases and decision flaws to reduce them in your judgment.
Metacognitive Assessment & Personalized Performance Analysis
Discover the patterns of your metacognitive process. Pytho's custom psychometric test reveals your thinking style and provides you with a personalized analysis.
BONUS: Optional Articles And Videos To Deepen Your Understanding
Go deeper into your understanding of how applying the science of decisions and predictions can be your best strategic self-improvement move.
.When volatility strikes, the most indispensable workers will be those who have adopted strategies uncovered by the last decade of research in decision science and forecasting.
ARETE's creator has led that research, winning multiple consecutive government-funded R&D programs testing human & human-machine systems & training.
Our systems have consistently shown the greatest accuracy improvements in human judgment and prediction.
A single training intervention can improve accuracy with zero prior experience by as much as 48%.
This course is designed to address the needs of a wide array of people:
Junior staffers can get noticed by establishing consistent forecasting accuracy
Managers & analysts strengthen their recognition of common biases that interfere with event outcomes
Resource directors maximize inclusion by better understanding how collective intelligence works
Leaders hone their sense for what's next by learning how to apply evidence-based techniques
To keep classes personalized, only 20 slots are available per Bootcamp on a first-come, first-serve basis.
The 6-week Bootcamps are only offered twice per year (Spring & Fall).
You can access course materials any time during the year-long subscription period, even after the 6-week Bootcamp has concluded.
This gold standard-tested training program is proven to boost forecasting accuracy with:
30 entertaining video tutorials you can watch anytime ($1600 value)
- Step-by-step instruction on how to use open source intelligence techniques to improve your information awareness
- Metacognitive testing and personalized analysis help put your learning in context by revealing your thinking style
- Quizzes to help set performance baselines and measure learning effects
- Real-world examples and use cases including a special section on applying decision science and forecasting to negotiation
A 10-question month-long forecasting tournament using a gamified platform to engage active learning-through-practice. Participants will be scored and prizes awarded for accuracy ($2000 value)
6 Live 90-Minute Group Sessions & 1 30-Minute One-on-One Session offers the opportunity to work directly with ARETE's creator. Coursework is reinforced and tournament activity tracked during the weekly 90-minute group sessions. Personalized attention in provided in private session ($1950 value)
3 Downloads you can reuse ($850 value)
- Pre-programmed Decision Table worksheet tool
- Handy Tips Guide to help you think like ARETE's creator, a top-ranked Superforecaster
- Tournament Performance Report has metrics on participants' before-and-after performance in the forecasting tournament. Participants' accuracy is measured with a Brier score, an accepted accuracy rule.
Total Value: $6400
Why should I care about improving my predictive reasoning skills? I think I'm pretty good at forecasting!
The only way you can claim you are good at making forecasts is to actually test your skill. Nobel Prize-winning research has shown overconfidence is a key reason why people assume they are predictively accurate, but in reality often blunder in decision-making because the things they thought would happen, actually didn't. The good news is that research we and colleagues have done in anticipatory intelligence shows that getting better at prediction is a trainable skill. And the people who benefit most are the ones who start with the lowest skill level! Getting better at anticipating what comes next is at the core of making better decisions and future-proofing your perspective.
What if I'm not smart enough? Math & science are not my best subjects.
We have built this course for the average math-phobic person, not statisticians. We take complex subjects and use cartoons and humor to make the material approachable. We've tested the content modules on hundreds of human test subjects over several years.
When does the Bootcamp's tournament take place?
ARETE tournaments are held twice a year, in Spring and Fall. They last for a month, and the next one is scheduled to begin October 2022.
What if I'm unhappy with the course?
We would never want you to be unhappy! Contact us in the first 30 days after purchase and we will give you a no-questions-asked full refund.
When does this course start?
The course begins when each 6-week Bootcamp launches and ends after the sixth and final week. Annually, one Bootcamp occurs in the Fall and one in the Spring..
How long do I have access to the course?
You have unlimited access to the coursework for the remainder of your annual subscription after the end of the 6-week Bootcamp—across any (and all) devices you own.
Who teaches this course?
ARETE's creator, a top-ranked Superforecaster and co-founder of Pytho, teaches the course.
What are the software requirements for this course?
You will need access to the Internet to download the course files, stream videos, and participate in the forecasting tournament.
How long is this course?
The ARETE Prediction Bootcamp course materials comprise over 5 hours of video tutorials. You also get a month of forecasting activity. The tutorials can be explored at your own pace throughout the length of your annual subscription.
How much does this course cost?
The cost of ARETE Prediction Bootcamp is $2988
Explore The ARETE Brain Bootcamps Built To Improve Judgment & Decision-Making
Brain Basics Bootcamp
Start your journey in learning how to anticipate change and master disruption with this introductory one-hour course:
- Fun decision science videos for beginners
- Test your ability to identify biases.
- Downloadable, reusable worksheets help you get decision optimizing techniques down to a simple routine. Optional reading materials & videos also supplied
- Course can be completed in 60 minutes
- One-time payment of USD $49 (billed once, permanent access)
INTERMEDIATE LEVEL: Decision Bootcamp
A comprehensive, self-timed training program to advance your leadership savvy by honing you predictive skills:
- 30+ videos guide you through 6 weeks' worth of materials you can study & complete at your own speed.
- Package includes access to a forecasting competition as part of this unique learning experience to test your skill. Prizes awarded for top accuracy
- Annual subscription of USD $49/month (billed annually)
The 6-week ARETE Prediction Bootcamp offers a world-class mentoring & coaching experience with live, weekly sessions:
- Includes all the features of the Decision Bootcamp PLUS:
- One-on-one coaching sessions with Superforecaster Regina Joseph & special guests
- Live weekly 90-minute interactive group sessions to reinforce learning & teaming
- Customized Performance Report & Analysis
- Annual subscription of USD $249/month (billed annually)
"In the Netherlands, over 100 employees of different government ministries, research institutes and companies were trained so far by Regina Joseph in strategic foresight. The course was very helpful in training our forecasting skills and our assessment of trends, events and risks. Regina is a skilled, passionate and enthusiastic teacher and a top superforecaster."
- Dr. Marcel G. Mennen, The Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Former Secretary of the Dutch Analyst Network on National Safety and Security
Hi I'm Regina
I'm a cofounder of the company Pytho and the creator of ARETE. These programs represent over a decade's worth of my experience in government-funded research developing cognitive science-based techniques, as well as teaching their application to critical decision-making at the highest levels in both public and private sectors. I have a consistently winning track record as a top-ranked Superforecaster since 2012 in IARPA research programs. My training systems are used by governments in Europe & the US. And I have applied my foresight to entrepreneurship, creating several award-winning products that were the firsts of their kind--like the world's first digital magazine, Blender.
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or if you need more control over your schedule to undertake training--we have packages to suit everyone.