Supercharge the precision of your planning & decisions. Work one-on-one with a Superforecaster in this comprehensive, proven program to help you anticipate change & optimize your potential

Become indispensable to any organization through superior forecasting.

Work with the world's best to unlock the secrets of better decisions.

Before we ask ourselves "what should we do" we need to ask ourselves "what could happen?"

As we face greater volatility--whether pandemics, climate or financial crises--we need to upgrade our foresight.

Predictive analysis is an increasingly essential skill in an uncertain world.

But how do you cultivate true predictive skill?

Let's start by looking at what causes bad forecasts.

If any of these mistakes sound familiar, or if you've never forecasted before, check out this video below:

Better predictive skill is not only possible, it can be learned!

We've spent the last decade leading research in the science of prediction.

We've built proven training systems shown to be the most effective at improving accuracy, even for amateurs with zero forecasting skill.

Multiple studies have shown that--despite their own beliefs to the contrary--most people are terrible at making forecasts and predictions. Especially experts. They only improve when trained and put to the test.

And forecasting tournaments are one of the most reliable ways to reduce noise and bias in decision-making.

Achieve superior decision-making by transforming how you see the future.

Work & Forecast Alongside A Recognized Superforecaster: Get mentored by the certified best

Assess Your Metacognitive Style: Discover your reasoning approach to improve performance

Think in Probabilities: Become proficient in prediction by learning probabilistic estimation

Reduce Bias and Noise: Overcome decision-killers by identifying & mitigating mental traps

Go Beyond Google: Hone open source intelligence (OSINT) skill to stay ahead of information

Conduct Pre- & Post-Mortems: Learn step-by-step how to iteratively improve accuracy

Team To Win: Be a better collaborator via a gamified competition with prizes for performance

Apply Predictive Reasoning: A veteran United Nations trainer instructs on real world adaptation: negotiation

Built on a scientifically-proven system that has trained diplomats, intelligence analysts, and military & government policy specialists in the US and Europe since 2014, ARETE's unique program is now available online. 

.When volatility strikes, the most indispensable workers will be those who have adopted strategies uncovered by the last decade of research in decision science and forecasting.

ARETE's creator has led that research, winning multiple consecutive government-funded R&D programs testing human & human-machine systems & training.

Our systems have consistently shown the greatest accuracy improvements in human judgment and prediction.

A single training intervention can improve accuracy with zero prior experience by as much as 48%.

This course is designed to address the needs of a wide array of people:

Junior staffers can get noticed by establishing consistent forecasting accuracy

Managers & analysts strengthen their recognition of common biases that interfere with event outcomes

Resource directors maximize inclusion by better understanding how collective intelligence works

Leaders hone their sense for what's next by learning how to apply evidence-based techniques

To keep classes personalized, only 20 slots are available per Bootcamp on a first-come, first-serve basis.

The 6-week Bootcamps are only offered twice per year (Spring & Fall).

You can access course materials any time during the year-long subscription period, even after the 6-week Bootcamp has concluded.

This gold standard-tested training program is proven to boost forecasting accuracy with: 

30 entertaining video tutorials you can watch anytime ($1600 value)

• Step-by-step instruction on how to use open source intelligence techniques to improve your information awareness
• Metacognitive testing and personalized analysis help put your learning in context by revealing your thinking style
• Quizzes to help set performance baselines and measure learning effects
• Real-world examples and use cases including a special section on applying decision science and forecasting to negotiation

A 10-question month-long forecasting tournament using a gamified platform to engage active learning-through-practice. Participants will be scored and prizes awarded for accuracy ($2000 value)

6 Live 90-Minute Group Sessions & 1 30-Minute One-on-One Session offers the opportunity to work directly with ARETE's creator. Coursework is reinforced and tournament activity tracked during the weekly 90-minute group sessions. Personalized attention in provided in private session ($1950 value)

3 Downloads you can reuse ($850 value)

• Pre-programmed Decision Table worksheet tool
• Handy Tips Guide to help you think like ARETE's creator, a top-ranked Superforecaster
• Tournament Performance Report has metrics on participants' before-and-after performance in the forecasting tournament. Participants' accuracy is measured with a Brier score, an accepted accuracy rule.

Total Value: $6400

Why should I care about improving my predictive reasoning skills? I think I'm pretty good at forecasting!

The only way you can claim you are good at making forecasts is to actually test your skill. Nobel Prize-winning research has shown overconfidence is a key reason why people assume they are predictively accurate, but in reality often blunder in decision-making because the things they thought would happen, actually didn't. The good news is that research we and colleagues have done in anticipatory intelligence shows that getting better at prediction is a trainable skill. And the people who benefit most are the ones who start with the lowest skill level! Getting better at anticipating what comes next is at the core of making better decisions and future-proofing your perspective.

What if I'm not smart enough? Math & science are not my best subjects.

We have built this course for the average math-phobic person, not statisticians. We take complex subjects and use cartoons and humor to make the material approachable. We've tested the content modules on hundreds of human test subjects over several years.

When does the Bootcamp's tournament take place?

ARETE tournaments are held twice a year, in Spring and Fall. They last for a month, and the next one is scheduled to begin October 2022.

What if I'm unhappy with the course?

We would never want you to be unhappy! Contact us in the first 30 days after purchase and we will give you a no-questions-asked full refund.

When does this course start?

The course begins when each 6-week Bootcamp launches and ends after the sixth and final week. Annually, one Bootcamp occurs in the Fall and one in the Spring..

How long do I have access to the course?

You have unlimited access to the coursework for the remainder of your annual subscription after the end of the 6-week Bootcamp—across any (and all) devices you own.

Who teaches this course?

ARETE's creator, a top-ranked Superforecaster and co-founder of Pytho, teaches the course.

What are the software requirements for this course?

You will need access to the Internet to download the course files, stream videos, and participate in the forecasting tournament.

How long is this course?

The ARETE Prediction Bootcamp course materials comprise over 5 hours of video tutorials. You also get a month of forecasting activity. The tutorials can be explored at your own pace throughout the length of your annual subscription.

How much does this course cost?

The cost of ARETE Prediction Bootcamp is $2988



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