Future-proof your decision-making with a Superforecaster in Sibylink's scientifically-proven program to help you anticipate change & build better policy.
In the past decade, research has consistently shown quantified forecasting to be foundational to geopolitical decision-making through its demonstrated improvement of strategic foresight.
Surprisingly, most organizations neither train personnel in forecasting accuracy, nor do they track and keep score on performance. As a result, organizations lack awareness of the accuracy of their decisions as well as what kinds of noise and bias hinder their analysts and policy-makers.
Not BZ. Since 2016, it has offered civil servants of the Netherlands the chance to be trained in modern strategic foresight skills by practitioners at the forefront of the research.
From pandemics to economic crises to conflict or survival challenges, ARETE Prediction Bootcamp sharpens your decision-making process by training you in the science and practice of superforecasting. The complexity of the 21st century requires staying a step ahead and knowing how to pivot when you confront unexpected changes. Doing so successfully requires strengthening your mental reflexes so you can accurately anticipate what comes next. ARETE cultivates the critical thinking, analytical and strategic foresight skills you need to succeed in building resilience in the face of global disruption:
Predictive reasoning is not the same as subject matter expertise. It is its own skill, one that schools don't traditionally teach. This Bootcamp allows you to learn & practice quantified forecasting without consequences if you make mistakes. Our goal is to give you an edge via a systematic method to see further.
By the end of this course, you will improve your predictive reasoning skill and receive a report detailing measurements of your performance; you will know how to break problems down more effectively in groups; you will understand how to lead by anticipating change; and boost your preparedness for making decisions under uncertainty.
Work & Forecast Alongside A Recognized Superforecaster: Get mentored by the certified best
Assess Your Metacognitive Style: Discover your reasoning approach to improve performance
Think in Probabilities: Become proficient in prediction by learning probabilistic estimation
Reduce Bias and Noise: Overcome decision-killers by identifying & mitigating mental traps
Go Beyond Google: Hone open source intelligence (OSINT) skill to stay ahead of information
Conduct Pre- & Post-Mortems: Learn step-by-step how to iteratively improve accuracy
Team To Win: Be a better collaborator via a gamified competition with prizes for performance
Apply Predictive Reasoning: A veteran United Nations trainer instructs on real world adaptation: negotiation
Built on a scientifically-proven system that has trained diplomats, intelligence analysts, and military & government policy specialists in the US and Europe since 2014, Sibylink's unique ARETE program is now available online.
When volatility strikes, the most indispensable workers will be those who have adopted strategies uncovered by the last decade of research in decision science and forecasting.
ARETE's creator has led that research, winning multiple consecutive government-funded R&D programs testing human & human-machine systems & training.
Our systems have consistently shown the greatest accuracy improvements in human judgment and prediction.
A single training intervention can improve accuracy with zero prior experience by as much as 48%.
This course is designed to address the needs of a wide array of people:
Junior staffers can get noticed by establishing consistent forecasting accuracy
Managers & analysts strengthen their recognition of common biases that interfere with event outcomes
Resource directors maximize inclusion by better understanding how collective intelligence works
Leaders hone their sense for what's next by learning how to apply evidence-based techniques
ONLY 30 SLOTS AVAILABLE PER BOOTCAMP.
SIGN UP BEFORE THEY ARE ALL SOLD OUT!
ARETE is a 6-week online bootcamp offered only 2 times per year (Spring / Fall)
Each bootcamp only accommodates a maximum enrollment of 30 people.
- Gold standard-tested training scientifically-proven to boost forecasting accuracy
- 30 fun and entertaining video lessons you can watch anytime around your own schedule during the bootcamp period.
- Step-by-step instruction on how to use open source intelligence techniques to improve your information awareness
- 4 quizzes to help you understand your reasoning style and to measure learning effects
- 6 live premium group coaching experiences via a weekly 90-minute session (per bootcamp)
- A 30-minute, one-on-one Office Hours coaching session with a Superforecaster
- A 10-question forecasting tournament using a gamified platform to engage active learning-through-practice. Participants will be scored for accuracy
- An ARETE Analysis Report detailing the measurements of participants' before-and-after performance in the bootcamp on cognitive quizzes and the forecasting tournament. Participants' accuracy is measured with a Brier score, an accepted statistical accuracy metric
- Real-world examples and use cases including geopolitics, public health, technology, and more.
SPRING 2022 BOOTCAMP BEGINS 31 MARCH 2022
(1st LIVE SESSION: 07 APRIL) & ENDS 12 MAY 2022
30 Fun & Engaging Videos Make the Science Understandable
Step-by-step video tutorials guide your instruction in core decision science and predictive reasoning concepts. You'll hone your strategic analytic skills with game-like exercises.
Learn & Practice Forecasting In A Contest With Bootcampers
Practice what you've learned in a forecasting tournament with fellow Bootcampers. Test your predictions, get scored on your accuracy, and win prizes for top performance!
Weekly Premium Live Group And
ARETE offers coaching in 6 live 90-minute group workshops and one private one-on-one mentoring session with ARETE's creator, a top-ranked Superforecaster. Notable guest stars also featured.
Decision Tool, Tips Guide & Performance Report
You'll get a pre-programmed, reusable decision table worksheet; a 13-page Handy Forecasting Guide; and a 17-page customized Performance Analytics report.
4 Quizzes To Improve Your Calibration & Sensitivity to Bias and Noise
Track your progress with quizzes to set your baselines. Learn to identify cognitive biases and decision flaws to reduce them in your judgment.
Metacognitive Assessment & Personalized Performance Analysis
Discover the patterns of your metacognitive process. Sibylink's custom psychometric test reveals your thinking style and provides you with a personalized analysis.
BONUS: Optional Articles And Videos To Deepen Your Understanding
Go deeper into your understanding of how applying the science of decisions and predictions can be your best strategic self-improvement move.
The 3 Components of ARETE
Completing the ARETE Prediction bootcamp involves immersion in the three components that make up the program's Circle of Excellence system. Combining rich and entertaining course materials; a forecasting competition featuring ranked accuracy metrics to evaluate what you've learned; and weekly live sessions and office hours with your course mentor, ARETE delivers a personalized self-improvement experience unlike any other.
"In the Netherlands, over 100 employees of different government ministries, research institutes and companies were trained so far by Regina Joseph in strategic foresight. The course was very helpful in training our forecasting skills and our assessment of trends, events and risks. Regina is a skilled, passionate and enthusiastic teacher and a top superforecaster."
- Dr. Marcel G. Mennen, The Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Former Secretary of the Dutch Analyst Network on National Safety and Security
Hi, I'm Regina
I'm the creator of ARETE and I bring to this program over a decade of government-funded research & experience in teaching people the science of prediction and its application to critical decision-making. I have a consistently winning track record as a top-ranked Superforecaster since 2012 in IARPA research programs. My training systems are used by governments in Europe & the US. And I have applied my foresight to entrepreneurship, creating several award-winning products that were the firsts of their kind--like the world's first digital magazine, Blender.
Why should I care about improving my predictive reasoning skills? I think I'm pretty good at forecasting!
The only way you can claim you are good at anticipating events or making forecasts is to actually test your skill. Humans are forecasting machines; every decision we make is essentially placing a bet over whether something will happen or not. But Nobel Prize-winning research has shown that all people are psychologically prone to unjustified overconfidence. That overconfidence is a key reason why people assume they are predictively accurate, but in reality often blunder in decision-making because the things they think will happen actually don't. The good news is that research we and colleagues have done in anticipatory intelligence shows that getting better at prediction is a trainable skill. And the people who benefit most are the ones who start with the lowest skill level! Getting better at anticipating what comes next is at the core of making better decisions and future-proofing your perspective.
What if I'm not smart enough? Math & science are not my best subjects.
We have built this course for the average math-phobic person, not statisticians. Part of the art in prediction science is in how we take complex subjects and use cartoons and humor to make the material approachable, easily understandable and fun. We've tested the content modules on hundreds of human test subjects over several years and we know that the people who gain the biggest improvements are those with the least prior background in the material concepts.
When does the bootcamp take place?
ARETE bootcamps are held 2x a year. They last for 6 weeks, and the next one is scheduled to begin 31 March 2022. Each bootcamp only takes in 30 participants, so that we can give everyone personalized attention.
What if I can't make it to one of the live weekly sessions?
The weekly live sessions are recorded and made available during the Bootcamp period to all participants in case they are unable to join on a particular day. Much of the live sessions involve interactive exercises, so weekly live session attendance is important. But the video recordings can help in case you miss a session.