In the past decade, research has consistently shown quantified forecasting to be foundational to geopolitical decision-making through its demonstrated improvement of strategic foresight.
Surprisingly, most organizations neither train personnel in forecasting accuracy, nor do they track and keep score on performance. As a result, organizations lack awareness of the accuracy of their decisions as well as what kinds of noise and bias hinder their analysts and policy-makers.
Not BZ. Since 2016, it has offered civil servants of the Netherlands the chance to be trained in modern strategic foresight skills by practitioners at the forefront of the research.
From pandemics to economic crises to conflict or survival challenges, ARETE Prediction Bootcamp sharpens your decision-making process by training you in the science and practice of superforecasting. The complexity of the 21st century requires staying a step ahead and knowing how to pivot when you confront unexpected changes. Doing so successfully requires strengthening your mental reflexes so you can accurately anticipate what comes next. ARETE cultivates the critical thinking, analytical and strategic foresight skills you need to succeed in building resilience in the face of global disruption:
Predictive reasoning is not the same as subject matter expertise. It is its own skill, one that schools don't traditionally teach. This Bootcamp allows you to learn & practice quantified forecasting without consequences if you make mistakes. Our goal is to give you an edge via a systematic method to see further.
By the end of this course, you will improve your predictive reasoning skill and receive a report detailing measurements of your performance; you will know how to break problems down more effectively in groups; you will understand how to lead by anticipating change; and boost your preparedness for making decisions under uncertainty.